Only-Terracotta
0xc6bdd0d9bcd2176e4ea0d82a2b71002898792c9d
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$84.50
Total PnL
$17.95
Realised
$4.95
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?
103 shares @ 24.3¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$31.35
$6.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 12?
102 shares @ 19.6¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$20.88
$0.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 12?
86 shares @ 10.9¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$16.39
$7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 12?
110 shares @ 5.5¢·now 6.7¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$7.36
$1.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 12?
100 shares @ 2.5¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$3.05
$0.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 12?
107 shares @ 1.2¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$2.68
$1.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 12?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$1.30
$-0.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 12?
130 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.78
$-0.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 12?
90 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.32
$-2.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on July 12?
505 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 12?$20.80Jul 12, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?$25.95Jul 12, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 12?$0.12Jul 12, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 12?$0.02Jul 12, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 12?$0.03Jul 12, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 12?$0.64Jul 12, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 12?$5.22Jul 12, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?$16.24Jul 12, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?$24.41Jul 12, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 12?$2.82Jul 12, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?$8.50Jul 12, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?$2.70Jul 12, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?$7.68Jul 12, 01:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 12?$6.57Jul 12, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 12?$2.25Jul 12, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 12?$2.55Jul 12, 01:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?$5.77Jul 12, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?$2.49Jul 12, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?$3.60Jul 12, 01:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 12?$2.20Jul 12, 00:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 23:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 02:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.