Confused-Factory
0xc721d25fd9d1f6772f9eae43bc7b12e507e75309
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$240.49
Win rate
87%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
1344 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?
777 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-85.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
540 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
533 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
500 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?
455 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
414 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$8.20Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.40Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.52Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.35Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.18Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET$1.06Jun 20, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.05Jun 20, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Jun 20, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$2.63Jun 20, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.05Jun 20, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.05Jun 20, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$2.10Jun 20, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$1.06Jun 20, 00:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$4.15Jun 20, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$1.06Jun 20, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET$5.23Jun 19, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET$5.30Jun 19, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-19?$20.50Jun 19, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?$51.09Jun 19, 17:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Jun 19, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $27.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 03:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.