Overdue-Oregano
0xc74474e75ad4cbe5b42110bd84e0e447456a955c
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-229.46
Realised
$5.02
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
389 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 5?
149 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on April 8?
130 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 7?
100 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 8?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 6?
85 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 5?
65 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- BILIBILI GAMING
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 20?
47 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 8?
46 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02?$9.04Jul 2, 01:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$9.07Jun 29, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$11.88May 30, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$1.55May 28, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$0.30May 27, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$14.70May 27, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Thunder (-11.5)$13.73May 27, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.16May 16, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.06May 16, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.86May 16, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$2.31May 16, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.08May 16, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.25May 16, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25?$1.14Apr 24, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 20?$2.87Apr 21, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21?$2.06Apr 21, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21?$2.26Apr 21, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21?$1.18Apr 21, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21?$3.50Apr 21, 04:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $5.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 05:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 01:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.