Unlawful-Ascot
0xc759c3b061fe7bd5cccf8891f5dbe2f8b604b965
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$459.04
Total PnL
$-190.03
Realised
$-25.82
Win rate
71%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- YES
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?
80002 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$40.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by August 31?
50 shares @ 32.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$16.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by August 31?
53 shares @ 25.9¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$14.44
$0.84
- YES
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by August 31?
50 shares @ 30.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$13.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $18B by August 31?
53 shares @ 23.4¢·now 23.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$12.19
$-0.21
- YES
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12B by August 31?
52 shares @ 23.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$10.43
$-1.57
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.5B by August 31?
52 shares @ 21.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$9.43
$-1.57
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.75B by August 31?
53 shares @ 18.1¢·now 16.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$8.47
$-1.13
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by August 31?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$8.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?
106 shares @ 8.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.92
$-0.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16B by August 31?$2.06Aug 1, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $18B by August 31?$5.15Aug 1, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by August 31?$1.35Aug 1, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by August 31?$0.96Aug 1, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by August 31?$0.38Aug 1, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by August 31?$2.28Aug 1, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by August 31?$3.10Aug 1, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by August 31?$7.18Aug 1, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by August 31?$6.98Aug 1, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by August 31?$0.96Aug 1, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by August 31?$4.13Aug 1, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $47.5B by August 31?$6.17Aug 1, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by August 31?$2.90Aug 1, 17:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by August 31?$0.58Aug 1, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31?$3.00Aug 1, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $525B by August 31?$7.38Aug 1, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by August 31?$4.74Aug 1, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by August 31?$6.98Aug 1, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by August 31?$2.69Aug 1, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $725B by August 31?$1.25Aug 1, 17:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 12:40 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 17:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.