Smooth-Beard
0xc7692571f2cd496f3cb32a860b14029eef62ab8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$4.00
Total PnL
$-25.13
Realised
$32.16
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2024$4.00
$2.00
- YES
Majority of GOP Senators sign Trump statement?
3179 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2024$0.00
$-33.83
- YES
Did Biden shit his pants?
3165 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2024$0.00
$-6.33
- YES
Will UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?
617 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2024$0.00
$-18.29
- NO
Will Trump talk about crypto by next Friday?
16 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2024$0.00
$-0.84
Recent activity
- SPLITWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$4.00Jun 10, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$3.94Jun 10, 19:10 UTC
- SPLITWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$4.00Jun 10, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$4.14Jun 10, 18:14 UTC
- SPLITWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$4.20Jun 10, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$4.24Jun 10, 18:11 UTC
- SPLITWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$3.30Jun 10, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$3.00Jun 10, 18:02 UTC
- SPLITWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$1.00Jun 10, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$1.00Jun 10, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK Election on July 4 be cancelled?$17.00Jun 10, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIran response to Israel by Sunday?$7.01Jun 10, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYDid Biden shit his pants?$6.33Jun 10, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran response to Israel by Sunday?$0.02Jun 9, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran response to Israel by Sunday?$12.00Jun 9, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran response to Israel by Sunday?$22.64Jun 9, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran response to Israel by Sunday?$1.04Jun 9, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran response to Israel by Sunday?$13.50Jun 9, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran response to Israel by Sunday?$6.22Jun 9, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran response to Israel by Sunday?$1.33Jun 9, 23:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 19:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 19:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.