Likely-Watcher
0xc78548b7e8344274f7c0eb48f6abdca23f97574f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-326.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
185 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
168 shares @ 23.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
86 shares @ 46.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
74 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
63 shares @ 31.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
51 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
50 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
49 shares @ 13.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025$0.00
$-6.80
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
47 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMMeteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?$5.00Dec 16, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$2.00Oct 23, 23:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$0.00Oct 23, 22:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$3.85Oct 23, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$1.00Oct 23, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$20.00Oct 23, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$20.00Oct 23, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$2.00Oct 23, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$2.00Oct 23, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$2.80Oct 23, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$277.90Oct 23, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$280.00Oct 23, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Diddy by Friday?$299.69Oct 23, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Diddy by Friday?$300.00Oct 23, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$16.00Oct 21, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$10.00Oct 21, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$5.00Oct 21, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$8.00Oct 21, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$2.00Oct 21, 15:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$11.90Oct 21, 10:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $41.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 20, 16:20 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 16, 23:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.