Idealistic-Institution
0xc799b08d10bb8b67e299e1768471adee8122e4f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
105
Open notional
$121.09
Total PnL
$-698.10
Realised
$-4.88
Win rate
0%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 105- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 16?
10 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$10.37
$2.38
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on August 16?
10 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$10.11
$2.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 16?
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$9.99
$2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?
10 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$9.63
$1.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 17?
10 shares @ 81.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$9.31
$1.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 17?
10 shares @ 77.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$9.07
$1.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 17?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$8.63
$0.63
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 17?
10 shares @ 84.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$8.38
$0.38
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?
10 shares @ 76.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$8.10
$0.21
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 18?
9 shares @ 85.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$8.04
$0.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 16?$9.30Aug 16, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 18?$2.33Aug 16, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 18?$5.67Aug 16, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?$7.98Aug 16, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 18?$8.08Aug 16, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?$7.97Aug 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 17?$8.06Aug 16, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 15?$8.00Aug 16, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 17?$7.95Aug 16, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 18?$8.05Aug 16, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 17?$7.97Aug 16, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 17?$8.00Aug 16, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 17?$7.98Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 15?$9.30Aug 15, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 15?$10.38Aug 15, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 15?$10.00Aug 15, 19:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 15?$8.98Aug 15, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 15?$10.38Aug 15, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 16?$8.08Aug 15, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 14?$8.98Aug 15, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
71 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $7.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 16:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 16:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.