This-Guerrilla-Carbohydrate
0xc7eb4b6b25159f7038b1e21c63082363e5dbd0b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$8.45
Total PnL
$-550.93
Realised
$2.17
Win rate
3%
88 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
11 shares @ 37.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
4 shares @ 76.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2026$2.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8 shares @ 24.6¢·now 15.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.22
$-0.78
- INDIA
T20 Series England vs India: England vs India
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.93
$-0.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
219 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
66 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
63 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
58 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C or higher on August 3?
55 shares @ 36.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$37.31Aug 20, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$25.88Aug 20, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$25.58Aug 20, 09:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$33.30Aug 20, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$25.70Aug 20, 09:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$13.03Aug 20, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$5.17Aug 20, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$5.17Aug 20, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$6.35Aug 20, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$5.27Aug 20, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$4.50Aug 20, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$5.15Aug 20, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$5.14Aug 19, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$8.89Aug 19, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$25.96Aug 19, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$37.55Aug 19, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$25.77Aug 19, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$25.73Aug 19, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$39.89Aug 19, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$25.66Aug 19, 19:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 88 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
88 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $21.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 12:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 09:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 88 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.