Threadbare-Bond
0xc8332a1588292482adaddb45af15edd12a7e0234
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-9.0K
Realised
$198.62
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
50336 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?
17050 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-353.00
- YES
Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?
5000 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-3.9K
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
2700 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-999.00
- YES
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
2500 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-171.78
- NO
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Critical Mineral" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?
1214 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-214.95
- NO
Will Trump say "Russia" or "China" 4+ times during C5+1 Summit on November 6?
735 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-117.60
- NO
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 12+ times during Hungary PM events on November 7?
650 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-344.49
- NO
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?
500 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-140.00
- NO
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?
370 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-99.90
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Feb 18, 00:52 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$715.21Feb 17, 15:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Feb 17, 00:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Feb 16, 00:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Feb 15, 00:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Feb 14, 00:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Feb 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Feb 12, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?$20.00Feb 11, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$740.76Feb 11, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLLighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$740.76Jan 1, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$486.11Dec 20, 09:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?$486.11Dec 20, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?$432.64Dec 19, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$100.00Dec 10, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?$44.00Nov 30, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?$19.26Nov 30, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?$353.00Nov 28, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say none of the listed terms during Saudi PM events on November 18?$71.09Nov 19, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say none of the listed terms during Saudi PM events on November 18?$20.55Nov 18, 17:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $108.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 17, 10:15 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 18, 00:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".