Oval-Market
0xc84e06655604ec942e8cc1439a48e6cdb6c613b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-38.05
Realised
$22.68
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
823 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.94
- YES
Will Orin Larson win Bareback Riding at the 2026 American Rodeo West Regional?
316 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will Malvinas Gaming win LRS 2026 Split 1?
261 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-7.15
- YES
Will Daxtyn Feild win Bareback Riding at the 2026 American Rodeo West Regional?
239 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.34
- YES
Will Bradlee Miller win Bareback Riding at the 2026 American Rodeo West Regional?
225 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.32
- YES
Will The New Kings win LRS 2026 Split 1?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- UP
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
160 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.55
- NO
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?
153 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?
150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?$3.50Jun 24, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?$3.50Jun 22, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$3.02Jun 13, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$3.02Jun 10, 08:49 UTC
- REWARD$13.34May 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's remarks not air?$19.98May 18, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another outcome occur in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election?$0.08May 18, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?$3.09May 18, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?$3.68May 18, 19:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?$1.06May 18, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?$1.10May 18, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?$4.13May 18, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's remarks not air?$19.60May 18, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 18?$1.08May 18, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 18?$0.92May 18, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?$1.16May 18, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another outcome occur in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election?$0.08May 18, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another outcome occur in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election?$0.40May 18, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLCoinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 18?$0.96May 18, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?$0.90May 18, 17:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 09:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 18:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.