Wallet profile

Foolish-Propane

0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5

activity 67/100

Wallet digest

whale

Activity score

67/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

42

Open notional

$972.9K

Total PnL

$-278.0K

Realised

$-116.2K

Win rate

30%

20 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 42

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$215.0K

Trades

5

Buy share

85%

Window

May 21, 14:00 UTC → Jul 3, 03:45 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $5.8K

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

35/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

30% win rate over 20 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
review

48 live trades, 10 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$5.8K

1 trades

Buy share

85%

Sample

medium

10 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

$66.6K · 31% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?31% of recorded volume$66.6KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?30% of recorded volume$63.6KWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?8% of recorded volume$18.1K

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence67 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry14 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk62 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
48
Avg trade size
$196.43
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 29, 14:53 UTC
Last active
Jul 29, 23:50 UTC
Win rate sample
20 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 23:55:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data