Variable-Resident
0xc861cb0f7a83cdabb821bf3b8c625341ea407d72
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-919.60
Realised
$40.30
Win rate
81%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
9958 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
1021 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
980 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.89
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1AM ET
333 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.79
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
217 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.56
- NO
Will Unitree Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?
210 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
201 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-19.95
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
188 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-9.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.05May 30, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$2.05May 30, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.06May 30, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$2.68May 30, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.06May 30, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.04May 30, 08:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$2.99May 30, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$1.02May 30, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$1.03May 30, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$0.31May 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.07May 30, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$1.04May 30, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$1.04May 30, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.21May 30, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.05May 30, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$1.07May 30, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$1.00May 30, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$0.45May 30, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$2.05May 30, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$4.24May 30, 07:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 08:33 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 08:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.