Nocturnal-Truth
0xc86b5c3ff7b76d85a07817d196bf058215876e26
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.5K
Realised
$-152.81
Win rate
2%
64 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?
4626 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-37.01
- YES
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?
2239 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-22.38
- YES
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals
1087 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- JAPAN
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance
919 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-450.26
- UNDER
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5
754 shares @ 39.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?
714 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals
714 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals
556 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals
526 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half$103.45Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5$102.56Jul 19, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$204.60Jul 19, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYLionel Messi: 1+ goals$103.30Jul 19, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?$283.39Jul 16, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?$263.98Jul 16, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 15?$119.07Jul 15, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?$101.35Jul 15, 04:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 15?$0.01Jul 15, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 15?$9.93Jul 15, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?$100.46Jul 15, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?$100.30Jul 15, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?$60.79Jul 15, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$32.93Jul 15, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?$52.30Jul 15, 02:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?$289.18Jul 15, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?$50.57Jul 15, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?$43.87Jul 15, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?$73.95Jul 15, 00:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?$47.03Jul 15, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 64 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
64 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $85.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 21:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 64 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.