Thorny-Dial
0xc87db851414a15ba2bd13d29006f1960451dc339
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Fight to Go the Distance?
924 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-240.32
- NO
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" during the next White House Press Briefing?
689 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-172.33
- UNDER
Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 3.5
627 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-457.35
- YES
Exact Score: Angers SCO 1 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais?
542 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-54.24
- TELSTAR 1963
Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)
386 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-305.01
- OVER
Llaneros FC vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 3.5
318 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-82.63
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $205?
279 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-8.36
- YES
Will Ham Ye-jin make a final pair in Single's Inferno: Season 5?
271 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.76
- YES
Will Coventry City FC vs. Preston North End FC end in a draw?
262 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-36.63
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 3?
241 shares @ 27.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-65.59
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 4?$0.00Jul 6, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 4?$3.50Jul 5, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 4?$1.98Jun 29, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 4?$1.49Jun 29, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23?$15.96Jun 23, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?$2.80Jun 23, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 22?$10.00Jun 23, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23?$15.00Jun 20, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?$2.66Jun 18, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 22?$9.94Jun 18, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)$452.95Apr 18, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)$371.42Apr 13, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMClub Santos Laguna vs. CF América: O/U 1.5$473.36Apr 8, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: FC Groningen (-1.5)$305.01Mar 31, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYClub Santos Laguna vs. CF América: O/U 1.5$364.49Mar 31, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Angers SCO 1 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais?$54.24Mar 30, 16:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$687.35Mar 30, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$240.32Mar 25, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Hormuz" during the next White House Press Briefing?$172.33Mar 24, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$96.23Mar 24, 05:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $150.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 18:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 04:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.