Wallet digest

active

Activity score

52/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

132

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.1K

Realised

$11.85

Win rate

55%

20 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 132

NO
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 19?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
NO
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will the US strike Yemen next?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
901 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026
$0.00
$-96.77
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
600 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026
$0.00
$-22.21
YES
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
461 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026
$0.00
$-4.87
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
415 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026
$0.00
$-59.38
YES
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
343 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
321 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026
$0.00
$-32.95

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?$1.02Jul 6, 19:29 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-06?$5.11Jul 6, 19:29 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?$1.03Jul 4, 22:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?$1.03Jul 3, 22:02 UTC
REDEEMWill England win on 2026-07-01?$2.78Jul 3, 19:21 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-07-03?$5.05Jul 3, 18:54 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Australia win on 2026-07-03?$1.03Jul 3, 18:53 UTC
TRADEBUYWill DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?$1.03Jul 1, 17:47 UTC
TRADEBUYWill DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?$1.03Jul 1, 17:47 UTC
TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-01?$1.02Jul 1, 17:45 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$0.00Jun 30, 12:04 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$5.27Jun 30, 11:54 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$5.08Jun 30, 11:49 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$5.26Jun 30, 11:48 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$4.19Jun 30, 11:41 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$5.25Jun 30, 11:40 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$1.05Jun 30, 11:39 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$4.74Jun 30, 11:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$5.12Jun 30, 11:34 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$5.21Jun 30, 11:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

44/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

55% win rate over 20 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence67 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry30 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $3.92
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 25, 12:13 UTC
Last active: Jul 6, 19:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 20 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:16:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data