Needy-Deathwatch
0xc8cd29b308ef309488958f6e92614ec2fedeed53
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$49.68
Total PnL
$-539.13
Realised
$-0.45
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?
33 shares @ 27.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$7.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?
432 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$6.69
$-2.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$5.10
$1.12
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 15?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.00
$3.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?
32 shares @ 10.6¢·now 13.9¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$4.43
$1.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 16?
5 shares @ 74.2¢·now 74.9¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$3.66
$0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 16?
40 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$3.43
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 17?
74 shares @ 4.9¢·now 4.3¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$3.13
$-0.50
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?
9 shares @ 44.5¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$2.86
$-1.12
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
2 shares @ 90.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.24
$0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?$3.55Jul 15, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 17?$3.80Jul 15, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?$3.56Jul 15, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?$0.48Jul 15, 23:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 15?$14.14Jul 15, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 16?$0.59Jul 15, 23:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 15?$12.11Jul 15, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 16?$3.80Jul 15, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 16?$3.68Jul 15, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 16?$0.56Jul 15, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$1.41Jul 15, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$1.48Jul 15, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$1.62Jul 15, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?$3.81Jul 15, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 16?$1.19Jul 15, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$1.08Jul 15, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$1.68Jul 15, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$2.06Jul 15, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?$2.09Jul 15, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?$2.04Jul 15, 13:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 10:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 23:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.