Complicated-Alpenglow
0xc8d093f3a3bd27876d1b5871f90d1b93961bf3cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$12.05
Total PnL
$-16.31
Realised
$0.03
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Beinir Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$5.00
$0.30
- YES
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
5 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$1.45
- YES
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?
2 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$2.05
$0.61
- YES
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
11100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-11.10
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
11 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
10 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.88
- YES
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.25
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on March 24?
5 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
1 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$3.55Mar 24, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,100 on March 24?$1.35Mar 24, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 24?$4.92Mar 24, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?$1.44Mar 23, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Beinir Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election?$4.70Mar 23, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 24?$2.80Mar 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?$2.90Mar 23, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$1.80Mar 23, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$4.10Mar 23, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?$0.00Mar 23, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 22?$0.00Mar 23, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?$1.28Mar 21, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 22?$3.65Mar 21, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19?$0.00Mar 21, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 16 above $153?$0.00Mar 21, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $610?$0.00Mar 21, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 16 above $210?$0.00Mar 21, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on March 19?$0.00Mar 21, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 20?$5.00Mar 21, 15:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 19?$0.00Mar 19, 18:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $4.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 19:02 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 24, 20:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.