Pale-Draw
0xc8d593f6112e48e7314a98d2f8fc2846928dc552
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-46.20
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
1066 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.0K
$-0.53
- YES
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 44.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.36
$1.87
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
23 shares @ 8.6¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.92
$-1.08
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
4295 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-20.52
- YES
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31?
1005 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?
229 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-14.79
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
9 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?
3 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 37.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.14
- YES
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.09Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 2, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?$1.55May 12, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$2.09May 12, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?$357.64May 12, 06:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?$203.72May 12, 06:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?$658.30May 12, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBackpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?$1.14Mar 11, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?$181.26Feb 23, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?$477.50Feb 23, 12:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $393.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 16, 05:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.