Powerful-Discourse
0xc8dd4022ee037db9e38749d03761e0773fcd2813
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-974.68
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- AVATAR
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?
1000 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
769 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 11?
650 shares @ 30.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" while addressing the nation on December 17?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Trump's new travel ban on Palestinians removed by January 31?
200 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- NO
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?
200 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-107.99
- NO
Will Trump say "Border" or "Tariff" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?
182 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17?
100 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-37.00
- YES
Will Trump say "JD" or "Vance" while addressing the nation on December 17?
100 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-61.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401k" during Bill Signing on December 12?
100 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-55.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$499.50Jan 12, 03:51 UTC
- TRADESELLParadex FDV above $750M one day after launch?$155.90Jan 12, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLFogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?$98.90Jan 12, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Mexico by January 31?$187.40Jan 11, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?$34.26Jan 11, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?$1.44Jan 11, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?$5.00Jan 11, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$500.00Jan 11, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?$40.29Jan 11, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Mexico by January 31?$186.40Jan 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$1.5KJan 10, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$95.10Jan 10, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$576.00Jan 9, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$1.00Jan 9, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$734.09Jan 9, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$1.05Jan 9, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$1.1KJan 9, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$4.0KJan 9, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMLighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?$100.00Jan 1, 01:31 UTC
- REDEEMLighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?$1.2KJan 1, 01:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $642.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 19, 02:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 12, 03:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.