Ornery-Mailbox
0xc8e088789047174f1fcc3ce1fe26e4c54ddef9c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.06
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$201.97
Win rate
96%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
96 shares @ 5.2¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.06
$-2.94
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
1556 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-26.83
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
1485 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
1235 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-25.16
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
1136 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-49.93
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?
1111 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
1100 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-83.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$5.14Jul 20, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$37.88Jul 20, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$25.59Jul 20, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$25.91Jul 20, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$5.12Jul 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$5.13Jul 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$5.13Jul 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$41.92Jul 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$25.72Jul 20, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$35.21Jul 20, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$25.51Jul 20, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$27.18Jul 20, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$25.16Jul 20, 13:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$33.12Jul 20, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.19Jul 20, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.12Jul 20, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.12Jul 20, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.12Jul 20, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$27.29Jul 20, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$25.38Jul 20, 13:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $14.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 02:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 13:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.