Cavernous-Data
0xc8fd586752b76061c12b0a37658bb4117d6b5efa
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$62.72
Total PnL
$-37.65
Realised
$0.52
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 18?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$9.97
$0.68
- INFURITY GAMING
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Prospect vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B
10 shares @ 55.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$5.90
$0.40
- BRUTE
LoL: Onion Team vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season
9 shares @ 75.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$5.66
$-0.82
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 19?
10 shares @ 46.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$4.75
$0.15
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
10 shares @ 39.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$4.40
$0.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?
10 shares @ 54.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$4.35
$-1.05
- UNDER
Games Total: O/U 3.5
6 shares @ 65.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$3.84
$0.09
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6PM ET
8 shares @ 56.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.24
$-1.24
- KABUM! ILHA DAS LENDAS
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO3) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs
10 shares @ 33.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$2.80
$-0.50
- UP
XRP Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$2.80
$0.00
Recent activity
- MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$7.48Aug 18, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$3.90Aug 18, 22:39 UTC
- MERGEEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$10.00Aug 18, 22:37 UTC
- MERGEXRP Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$10.00Aug 18, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$6.10Aug 18, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$3.60Aug 18, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$5.90Aug 18, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMValorant: FOKUS Sakura vs G2 Gozen (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Playoffs$0.00Aug 18, 22:35 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:30 UTC
- MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6PM ET$2.00Aug 18, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6PM ET$5.60Aug 18, 22:29 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner$0.00Aug 18, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMGame Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5)$0.00Aug 18, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMGame Handicap: MKF (-2.5) vs Barça eSports (+2.5)$0.00Aug 18, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs$0.00Aug 18, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 6PM ET$2.60Aug 18, 22:26 UTC
- MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$2.52Aug 18, 22:25 UTC
- MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6PM ET$8.00Aug 18, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$2.00Aug 18, 22:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $3.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 21:56 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 22:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.