Moist-Referendum
0xc919e7eca3009471fccccd450a3a5f5853c994eb
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-44.16
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
29 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US recession in 2025?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?
9 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will JD Vance say "Israel" or "Gaza" during his remarks to US troops in UK on August 13?
7 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2025$0.00
$-2.35
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Brazil" or "Bolsonaro" during his Squawk Box appearance on August 5?
5 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2025$0.00
$-3.21
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.99
- NO
Will Trump say "India" or "Pakistan" during the Armenian PM bilateral on August 8?
5 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$1.60Jan 7, 18:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Jan 7, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$1.00Jan 7, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$2.46Jan 7, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$1.00Jan 7, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$1.00Jan 7, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$2.14Jan 7, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$2.26Jan 5, 19:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?$2.26Aug 29, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?$1.97Aug 27, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "Fake News" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?$1.00Aug 27, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "Union" or "Unionization" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?$2.00Aug 27, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "Big Beautiful Bill" 3+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?$2.00Aug 27, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "Trump" or "President" 30+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?$2.00Aug 27, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?$2.32Aug 27, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?$5.13Aug 27, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance say "Ukraine" or "Russia" 5+ times during his remarks to US troops in UK on August 13?$1.52Aug 16, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "Israel" or "Gaza" during his remarks to US troops in UK on August 13?$2.35Aug 13, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "Ukraine" or "Russia" 5+ times during his remarks to US troops in UK on August 13?$1.00Aug 13, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance say "King" or "Dear Friend" during his remarks to US troops in UK on August 13?$2.00Aug 13, 14:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $1.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 17:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 7, 18:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".