Arctic-Damage
0xc91e5cb50ca38ca38208dcd25d7961b34a8d07dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$120.20
Total PnL
$-167.38
Realised
$-5.53
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
100 shares @ 36.6¢·now 52.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.65
$16.05
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
100 shares @ 47.3¢·now 28.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$28.80
$-18.50
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$16.30
$-0.70
- YES
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.80
$-2.20
- YES
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$5.63
$-1.88
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
50 shares @ 28.0¢·now 11.2¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$5.60
$-8.40
- NO
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
50 shares @ 36.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.63
$-15.38
- NO
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
130 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.72
$-61.84
- YES
Will Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
168 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.08
$-67.27
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?
3 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.74
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?$16.60Aug 16, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$22.70Aug 16, 03:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$7.67Aug 16, 03:23 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.27Aug 16, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$10.95Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 16?$32.42Aug 15, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 16?$33.59Aug 15, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$6.74Aug 15, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$7.00Aug 15, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?$10.00Aug 15, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?$2.23Aug 15, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?$2.40Aug 15, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?$16.20Aug 15, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?$17.00Aug 15, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?$14.24Aug 15, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?$15.40Aug 15, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?$10.72Aug 15, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?$13.18Aug 15, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 16?$10.35Aug 15, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 16?$10.80Aug 15, 08:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $19.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 06:40 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 08:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.