Polished-Doctor
0xc927a7cf1ad2705326404b8ec68efc5bd5e9d404
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-141.54
Realised
$-1.43
Win rate
10%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
276 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- OVER
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 5.5
215 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.75
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - August 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
65 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will India win on 2026-06-05?
60 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?
39 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.41
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
37 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
32 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?
31 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$2.12Aug 10, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$2.12Aug 10, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$2.13Aug 10, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.11Aug 10, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$8.17Aug 10, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$7.41Aug 10, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$1.06Aug 10, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$2.12Aug 10, 05:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$3.72Aug 10, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$2.09Aug 10, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$2.13Aug 10, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$2.10Aug 10, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$2.08Aug 10, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$2.08Aug 10, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$1.07Aug 10, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$2.12Aug 10, 04:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 03:54 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 05:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.