Improbable-Thanks
0xc96fdef87dbb3d547ea729beede04c1db8bbd57c
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-38.56
Realised
$2.12
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 15?
333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Unitree Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will MagicLab have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?
315 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1?
300 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 15?
203 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on February 17?
178 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
149 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$0.73Mar 4, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$0.73Mar 4, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$22.94Mar 4, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 4?$3.08Mar 4, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4?$4.00Mar 4, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 4?$3.77Mar 4, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 4?$2.03Mar 4, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4?$8.60Mar 4, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 3?$0.86Mar 3, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 3?$1.32Mar 3, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 3?$1.15Mar 3, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 1?$0.97Mar 1, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 1?$0.03Mar 1, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1?$0.60Mar 1, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 1?$0.92Mar 1, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$0.50Feb 27, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$0.85Feb 26, 08:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 00:07 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 16:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".