First-Edition
0xc98e490c770db253fb89732db1f88f746cda3583
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$37.92
Total PnL
$-87.82
Realised
$0.80
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 6?
16 shares @ 74.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$12.23
$0.55
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?
8 shares @ 71.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$7.87
$2.04
- NO
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of August 3 2026?
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$5.86
$0.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 7?
7 shares @ 83.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$5.82
$-0.04
- NO
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?
8 shares @ 77.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$5.81
$-0.04
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
129 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.32
$-9.68
- YES
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
286 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
85 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-34.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?
16 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-13.52
- NO
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of August 3 2026?$5.90Aug 3, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?$5.91Aug 3, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 7?$5.93Aug 2, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2?$3.71Aug 2, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 6?$5.94Aug 2, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 6?$5.94Aug 2, 13:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$6.41Aug 1, 22:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by July 31?$5.95Aug 1, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of July 27 2026?$3.09Jul 31, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of July 27 2026?$2.99Jul 31, 01:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$3.06Jul 30, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$5.87Jul 30, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill BGC Partners (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?$6.41Jul 30, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?$6.08Jul 30, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2?$3.43Jul 30, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?$6.25Jul 29, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$3.01Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$3.13Jul 28, 18:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Royal Caribbean (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?$5.81Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2?$5.94Jul 28, 11:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $5.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 05:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 23:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.