Vivid-Detention
0xc996c59e50d20ba53c43acb107c60aaa3dcd472f
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$39.45
Total PnL
$-276.03
Realised
$7.80
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
10 shares @ 85.5¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.45
$-1.10
- YES
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
10 shares @ 64.5¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$5.45
$-1.00
- NO
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.58
$0.23
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 89.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.46
$-0.18
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.17
$-0.13
- YES
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 60.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.88
$0.88
- YES
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 75.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.70
$-1.05
- YES
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?
7 shares @ 80.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.64
$-3.32
- YES
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.07
$-0.03
- YES
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 67.3¢·now 20.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.04
$-4.69
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17?$2.24Jun 17, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17?$2.00Jun 17, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17?$1.01Jun 17, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17?$1.45Jun 17, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17?$0.51Jun 17, 07:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 11?$0.07Jun 11, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11?$0.99Jun 11, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 11?$0.27Jun 11, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 11?$0.08Jun 11, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 9?$1.05Jun 9, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 7?$2.00Jun 7, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 6?$0.75Jun 6, 08:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?$2.03Jun 5, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?$0.63Jun 4, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?$5.10Jun 2, 13:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29?$11.88Jun 2, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on June 2?$10.89Jun 2, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on June 2?$2.46Jun 2, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on June 2?$3.25Jun 2, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 29?$1.10May 29, 20:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $3.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 06:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 10:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.