Concerned-Reservation
0xc9e6658334f6aa43029f5b80e925b3462c840f82
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
182
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-12.65
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 182- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 20?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 21?
600 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-57.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 21?
577 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-108.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 20?
501 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-38.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 21?
500 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-135.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 21?
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 21?
500 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 21?
500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 21?
500 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 21?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 25?$0.30Feb 25, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on February 24?$0.73Feb 25, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 25?$1.16Feb 25, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 25?$0.70Feb 25, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 25?$2.04Feb 25, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?$3.29Feb 25, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?$2.50Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Georgetown Hoyas (-3.5)$4.49Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$4.38Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLDzumhur vs. Monfils: Match O/U 22.5$4.56Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Georgetown Hoyas (-2.5)$4.08Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$5.00Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$5.27Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on February 24?$7.47Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Middlesbrough FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw?$7.89Feb 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5$9.08Feb 25, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?$9.97Feb 25, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 25?$4.05Feb 25, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$9.99Feb 25, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner$10.62Feb 25, 00:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $18.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 25, 00:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.