Perky-Subconscious-Inbox
0xca13edd88baafa1d71ae9925225882a5c0f24199
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-375.04
Realised
$-14.57
Win rate
0%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
2655 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1630 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.89
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?
909 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
872 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Morocco?
625 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Colombia?
500 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$1.05Aug 18, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gillian Robertson win by KO or TKO?$4.71Aug 16, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$4.21Aug 15, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$0.00Aug 15, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$5.35Aug 15, 02:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$0.00Aug 15, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$1.03Aug 15, 02:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$16.24Aug 15, 02:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$0.00Aug 15, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$5.27Aug 15, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$5.34Aug 15, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.13Jul 29, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.20Jul 29, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.10Jul 29, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?$1.57Jul 16, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?$1.05Jul 16, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.25Jul 16, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$4.84Jul 16, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.29Jul 16, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half AND England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half$10.54Jul 15, 04:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
55 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $6.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 14:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 08:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.