0xca1d4ff95d20b2c6f2fb3d6bfc0e0e4380d72e6a
0xca1d4ff95d20b2c6f2fb3d6bfc0e0e4380d72e6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
193
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-949.06
Realised
$-195.95
Win rate
3%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 193- YES
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 5, 2026?
150 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.17
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
133 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.06
- ALGERIA
Spread: Algeria (-2.5)
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
88 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
- YES
Will Rio Ave FC vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?
72 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-20.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
65 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-28.73
- YES
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal?
50 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway?
48 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 4?
42 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.27
- YES
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first?
40 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.82
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$1.30Jul 20, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$2.74Jul 20, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$3.47Jul 20, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$1.90Jul 20, 19:52 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$2.21Jul 20, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$1.53Jul 20, 17:21 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$3.26Jul 20, 16:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$3.76Jul 20, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$2.62Jul 20, 14:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$5.58Jul 20, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$10.20Jul 20, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$5.18Jul 20, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$5.20Jul 20, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$5.18Jul 20, 13:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
65/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
30 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $3.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 06:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 20:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.