Misty-Organising
0xca1d527acb52832ca08b0cf92f856d0bf7a32b24
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.70
Total PnL
$-671.18
Realised
$-33.19
Win rate
1%
199 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
16 shares @ 31.8¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$4.70
$-0.37
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
3416 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-9.19
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
197 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
138 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.00
$-8.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
133 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
123 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
98 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-6.40
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
94 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
91 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.40Aug 21, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$2.10Aug 21, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$2.10Aug 21, 09:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$7.00Aug 21, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.04Aug 21, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.41Aug 21, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.27Aug 21, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.06Aug 21, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.27Aug 21, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.07Aug 21, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.07Aug 21, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.06Aug 21, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.07Aug 21, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.05Aug 21, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.06Aug 21, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.27Aug 21, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.27Aug 21, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.88Aug 21, 09:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$12.55Aug 21, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.07Aug 21, 09:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 199 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
199 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 21, 07:40 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 09:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 199 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.