Candid-Fatigue
0xca4896163936eba34fb3fc1ca4636f247b042c02
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-124.60
Realised
$3.12
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
"Caught Stealing" Rotten Tomatoes score is 85 or higher?
75 shares @ 42.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-32.00
- NO
"Weapons" Rotten Tomatoes score is 95%+?
64 shares @ 32.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-20.90
- YES
"Weapons" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 90–94%?
51 shares @ 29.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-15.15
- YES
"The Conjuring: Last Rites" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 69?
42 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2025$0.00
$-2.45
- YES
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $3.5m?
40 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
"Freakier Friday" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 50–69%?
37 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-0.37
- YES
"The Conjuring: Last Rites" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70 and 79?
32 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.66
- YES
"Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 70%?
28 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.82
- YES
"Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%?
25 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-4.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$2.53Nov 30, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?$5.00Nov 30, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?$1.35Oct 14, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?$4.16Oct 14, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$2.00Oct 13, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Soul on Fire" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?$0.60Oct 11, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 36m?$0.80Oct 10, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUY"Tron: Ares" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 50 and 59?$0.43Oct 8, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEM"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89?$1.12Oct 8, 12:26 UTC
- REDEEM"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 80?$5.50Oct 8, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?$1.00Oct 4, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?$1.55Oct 3, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Senior" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?$5.00Oct 3, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?$5.00Oct 3, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?$0.15Sep 22, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUY"One Battle After Another" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 90 and 94?$0.36Sep 21, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUY"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89?$1.00Sep 21, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUY"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 80?$4.95Sep 21, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?$1.00Sep 21, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Senior" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3m?$0.07Sep 21, 15:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 12, 13:00 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 30, 11:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.