0xca49c09840a5b2f67eb5bc588346848ddd45a6a9
0xca49c09840a5b2f67eb5bc588346848ddd45a6a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$-475.84
Win rate
2%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
823 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
371 shares @ 21.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
350 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
332 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
300 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
300 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
280 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
275 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.59Jul 16, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.57Jul 16, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.57Jul 16, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.59Jul 16, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.59Jul 16, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.59Jul 16, 08:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$2.88Jul 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.59Jul 16, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$11.54Jul 16, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.60Jul 16, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$10.40Jul 16, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$2.12Jul 16, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.58Jul 16, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
200 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 04:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 09:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.