0xca61bfa95c93f931494b039f2814276a73e6363c
0xca61bfa95c93f931494b039f2814276a73e6363c
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$153.75
Total PnL
$-29.60
Realised
$12.44
Win rate
45%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
17 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$17.17
$7.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 6?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$16.67
$14.67
- NO
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
16 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$16.26
$6.99
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
15 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$14.71
$5.44
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
14 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$13.63
$4.36
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
12 shares @ 78.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$11.74
$2.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 3?
9 shares @ 21.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$9.15
$7.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on March 6?
9 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$8.77
$3.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on March 29?
7 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$6.90
$4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 5?
7 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$6.64
$2.72
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on April 18?$0.00Apr 19, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on April 18?$2.00Apr 16, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on April 18?$2.00Apr 16, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 15?$2.00Apr 15, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14?$2.00Apr 14, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 11?$0.00Apr 12, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 11?$2.00Apr 11, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on April 8?$2.00Apr 8, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 11?$2.00Apr 7, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 6?$2.00Apr 6, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 6?$2.00Apr 6, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 5?$0.00Apr 6, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 5?$2.00Apr 5, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 5?$2.00Apr 5, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on April 8?$2.00Apr 5, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on April 8?$2.00Apr 5, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on April 4?$0.00Apr 5, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 4?$2.00Apr 3, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 4?$2.00Apr 3, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on April 4?$2.00Apr 3, 13:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 13:05 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 19, 13:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.