0xca75fbadcc238afd23c317e253a8b5c47b390a64
0xca75fbadcc238afd23c317e253a8b5c47b390a64
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-72.72
Win rate
40%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Calvin Ridley have 624.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
219 shares @ 52.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$151.11
$37.23
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?
179 shares @ 47.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$66.23
$-17.90
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
166 shares @ 30.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$40.71
$-9.14
- NO
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?
47 shares @ 81.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$35.07
$-2.81
- YES
Will Aaron Donald sign his next NFL contract by August 26, 2026?
48 shares @ 49.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$33.97
$10.52
- YES
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?
48 shares @ 72.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$33.17
$-1.44
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026?
130 shares @ 36.8¢·now 24.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$31.19
$-16.67
- NO
BLAST Open Porto 2026: 10+ Knife Kills at the Event?
40 shares @ 80.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.80
$-1.20
- YES
Will Thug Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award?
70 shares @ 73.7¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.21
$-21.58
- NO
Will "The Dog Stars" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
41 shares @ 72.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$29.13
$-0.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?$2.57Aug 18, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rodri join Barcelona?$0.00Aug 18, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 18?$2.78Aug 18, 22:40 UTC
- MERGEWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?$20.00Aug 18, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?$93.53Aug 18, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or below on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C or higher on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 18?$0.00Aug 18, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 18?$0.25Aug 18, 22:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?$14.43Aug 18, 22:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?$9.24Aug 18, 22:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
30 closed markets, 40% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $16.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 21:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 22:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.