Concerned-Campaigning
0xca785791637f837011f48e8c4019c3ab0c2e07d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$58.64
Total PnL
$-382.43
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?
20 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$19.81
$0.21
- NO
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue?
20 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$19.69
$0.09
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
20 shares @ 97.6¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$19.14
$-0.38
- YES
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
75 shares @ 97.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-72.83
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18?
40 shares @ 97.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-39.04
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7?
40 shares @ 97.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-38.96
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?
40 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-38.40
- TWISTED MINDS
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Playoffs
40 shares @ 97.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-38.87
- YES
Ethereum above 1,880 on July 23, 2PM ET?
20 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-19.60
- UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI
LoL: University of Mississippi vs Contingent Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage
20 shares @ 97.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-19.56
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Intemann FC Lauterach vs. RZ Pellets Wolfsberger AC end in a draw?$20.00Jul 24, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$19.52Jul 24, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump's tie be blue?$19.62Jul 24, 20:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$40.00Jul 24, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$20.00Jul 24, 20:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill SC Wieselburg vs. WSG Tirol end in a draw?$20.00Jul 24, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,850 on July 24, 4PM ET?$20.00Jul 24, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,850 on July 24, 4PM ET?$19.60Jul 24, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$40.00Jul 24, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMGame 1: Any Player Rampage?$20.00Jul 24, 17:37 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,850 on July 24, 1PM ET?$20.00Jul 24, 17:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above 63,800 on July 24, 1PM ET?$20.00Jul 24, 17:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on July 24?$20.00Jul 24, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 63,800 on July 24, 1PM ET?$19.05Jul 24, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,850 on July 24, 1PM ET?$19.25Jul 24, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SC Wieselburg vs. WSG Tirol end in a draw?$19.62Jul 24, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on July 24?$19.56Jul 24, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Intemann FC Lauterach vs. RZ Pellets Wolfsberger AC end in a draw?$19.62Jul 24, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$0.97Jul 24, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin above 63,800 on July 24, 10AM ET?$4.75Jul 24, 13:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $18.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 17:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 20:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.