Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-112.76

Realised

$-5.06

Win rate

30 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 31

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
2500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
700 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-7.00
YES
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-17?
200 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
177 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.75
YES
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-17?
173 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
COLORADO ROCKIES
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
47 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
22 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-7.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
19 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.00May 20, 08:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$4.16May 20, 08:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.04May 20, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.07May 20, 08:32 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.06May 20, 08:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.01May 20, 08:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.45May 20, 08:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.03May 20, 08:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.13May 20, 08:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.03May 20, 08:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.87May 20, 08:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.03May 20, 08:20 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.89May 20, 08:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.04May 20, 08:19 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.18May 20, 08:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.03May 20, 08:17 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.28May 20, 08:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.03May 20, 08:17 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.12May 20, 08:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.03May 20, 08:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

7% win rate over 30 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

30 closed markets, 7% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry48 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $1.29
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 20, 07:55 UTC
Last active: May 20, 08:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 30 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:26:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data