Hefty-Custody
0xca9c94e9f2fbfccd3335a67bdc6d6ffc12d37311
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
192
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-23.4K
Realised
$113.07
Win rate
26%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 192- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
13029 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-13.24
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
8619 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-169.98
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
8619 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-35.48
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
8619 shares @ 23.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
7650 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-82.73
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
7650 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-587.93
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
7650 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-248.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
7650 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-692.51
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
7650 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-41.69
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
7650 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?$21.00Feb 12, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?$59.00Feb 12, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?$170.00Feb 12, 02:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Feb 10, 00:26 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.8KFeb 9, 11:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Feb 9, 00:41 UTC
- SPLITWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.8KFeb 8, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on February 6, 2026?$12.00Feb 8, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$1.8KFeb 8, 01:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.43Feb 8, 00:32 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.0KFeb 7, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6.5m and 8m?$0.09Feb 7, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m?$0.09Feb 7, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6.5m?$0.07Feb 7, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?$18.29Feb 7, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?$10.85Feb 7, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$26.22Feb 7, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$0.09Feb 7, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$0.24Feb 7, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$0.04Feb 7, 08:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
31 closed markets, 26% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $5.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 7, 06:59 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 12, 02:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.