Major-Culvert
0xcab8396705d94a4cccee9064e6f56eba7ba7b955
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
162
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$102.88
Win rate
76%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 162- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?
5642 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-544.90
- YES
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?
5361 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-143.33
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on January 13?
1040 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-46.40
- NO
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?
1026 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-163.93
- YES
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Khamenei seen in public by March 7?
618 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-29.04
- 3DMAX
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1
551 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-154.40
- YES
Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?
546 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-63.45
- NO
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
500 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-290.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYOver $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$0.35Mar 31, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$3.51Mar 31, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$1.30Mar 31, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$1.71Mar 31, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$5.95Mar 31, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYEdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?$3.13Mar 31, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$12.00Mar 30, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$4.11Mar 30, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$7.52Mar 30, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.87Mar 30, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.25Mar 30, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.25Mar 30, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$18.00Mar 30, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$8.75Mar 30, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.13Mar 30, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$13.12Mar 30, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.25Mar 30, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.75Mar 30, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$11.95Mar 30, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.05Mar 30, 21:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $22.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 14:40 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 31, 23:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.