Illustrious-Football
0xcad231e2afed297d3ea8a0ff3e0c4858a1aa895d
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
169
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-274.55
Realised
$64.02
Win rate
94%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 169- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 14?
400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 17?
270 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 20?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 1?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 16?
244 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.01
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
213 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?
201 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,200 in March?$0.12Mar 8, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,200 in March?$0.88Mar 8, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?$1.00Mar 7, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$0.32Mar 6, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$0.14Mar 6, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$0.17Mar 6, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$0.09Mar 6, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$0.05Mar 6, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$0.23Mar 6, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?$1.00Mar 6, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?$1.00Feb 25, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?$1.02Feb 25, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$2.20Feb 23, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$4.00Feb 23, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$3.30Feb 23, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$2.30Feb 23, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$0.90Feb 23, 03:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$1.55Feb 23, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$3.50Feb 23, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 23?$1.00Feb 22, 21:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
32 closed markets, 94% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 22, 05:16 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 8, 16:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.