Watery-Affidavit
0xcae67494e9d302d0915be269ac35878700fc72a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
39
Open notional
$83.02
Total PnL
$0.78
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?
20 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$20.00
$0.02
- NO
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference?
13 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2025$13.00
$0.03
- NO
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$10.00
$0.02
- NO
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?
10 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$10.00
$0.08
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 30?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$10.00
$0.10
- NO
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?
5 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$5.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 2?
5 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 2, 2025$5.00
$0.02
- NO
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$5.00
$0.20
- NO
Base airdrop in Q3 2025?
5 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$5.00
$0.20
- YES
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
400 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025?$9.98Nov 30, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?$9.92Nov 8, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 30?$9.90Sep 30, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released by July 31?$4.80Jul 30, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBase airdrop in Q3 2025?$4.79Jul 30, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $120K in June?$19.98Jun 30, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 2?$4.98Apr 30, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$5.00Apr 30, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin up in Q1 2025?$10.00Apr 30, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference?$0.00Apr 30, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMMetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?$100.00Apr 30, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin up in Q1 2025?$9.99Mar 29, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?$16.00Mar 29, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference?$18.00Mar 29, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above $99,000 on February 28?$175.27Mar 29, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $99,000 on February 28?$174.74Feb 27, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference?$7.98Jan 31, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?$48.00Jan 31, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYMetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?$48.00Jan 31, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?$9.90Jan 31, 20:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $39.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 31, 16:47 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 30, 10:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.