Failing-Curio
0xcaebb54a0565b8483c816691b7d71504dfbe84d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$1.15
Total PnL
$-135.44
Realised
$-36.88
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Biden finish his term?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$1.15
$0.13
- NO
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
18500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-81.09
- YES
Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?
150 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-17.32
- YES
$300m in $WLFI sold before election?
3 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$40.20Oct 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$0.06Oct 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$1.52Oct 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$9.00Oct 18, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$50.00Oct 17, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$90.33Oct 17, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLEric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025?$0.78Oct 17, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$87.91Oct 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$0.42Oct 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$2.00Oct 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$77.43Oct 17, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$48.39Oct 17, 18:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Biden finish his term?$1.74Oct 17, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?$27.29Oct 17, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden finish his term?$2.80Oct 17, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?$2.80Oct 17, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$1.80Oct 17, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025?$1.00Oct 17, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?$2.80Oct 17, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUY$300m in $WLFI sold before election?$0.28Oct 17, 03:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
10/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $14.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 14, 23:22 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 18, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.