Immense-Sofa
0xcaf0f7273f0cf99c1a822a750c77e1d27026ebc2
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-32.27
Realised
$-1.27
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
15 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
6 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$0.00Jun 24, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.07Jun 24, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.06Jun 11, 20:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.96Jun 11, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.03Jun 11, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.03Jun 11, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$1.14Jun 11, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$1.05Jun 11, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$1.18Jun 11, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$1.03Jun 11, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.03Jun 11, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.04Jun 3, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?$1.04Jun 2, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026?$1.04Jun 2, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.05May 25, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$2.08May 19, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$2.09May 19, 15:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.27May 19, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$2.10May 19, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.01May 19, 14:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $2.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 22:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 09:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.