Joyous-Catalyst
0xcaff28ab217406a961a1d5ff1a60dc799998e3ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$225.38
Total PnL
$-32.28
Realised
$-11.62
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
First round outright winner in the SC Special Republican Senate Primary?
58 shares @ 74.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$49.88
$6.96
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
40 shares @ 60.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$39.76
$15.76
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by more than 20%?
40 shares @ 77.5¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$37.98
$6.98
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
40 shares @ 86.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$36.60
$2.20
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
40 shares @ 52.7¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$20.00
$-1.09
- YES
Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
40 shares @ 35.7¢·now 39.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$15.60
$1.31
- YES
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
50 shares @ 16.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$9.50
$1.50
- YES
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
40 shares @ 20.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.60
$0.60
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
40 shares @ 19.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$7.20
$-0.40
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
40 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.20
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$21.49Jul 29, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.56Jul 28, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$3.76Jul 28, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$14.66Jul 27, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother GTA VI trailer released by July 31?$36.65Jul 27, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$8.27Jul 27, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$34.40Jul 25, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Larry Rhoden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by more than 20%?$31.28Jul 25, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by July 31?$35.03Jul 24, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYFirst round outright winner in the SC Special Republican Senate Primary?$43.37Jul 23, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$8.00Jul 23, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?$17.05Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?$1.27Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLFirst round outright winner in the SC Special Republican Senate Primary?$26.15Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Maine have the closest Governor's race in 2026?$38.01Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the House pass a reconciliation bill by July 30?$39.18Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?$22.28Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rome Seymour be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 2)?$19.10Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$34.40Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$5.41Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $19.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 22:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 15:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.