Sad-Deduce
0xcb0bdd906cf851aee94e0dccb28aca02ffcdf4fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-301.13
Realised
$-112.05
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 5-11?
280 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.58
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 6?
277 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.71
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 9?
275 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 4?
275 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.35
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on January 7?
274 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.37
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 12PM ET
273 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.45
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 31?
270 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.43
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on January 11?
267 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 9?
263 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.16
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 8?
252 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.49
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 14-20?$85.83Jul 21, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 14-20?$83.77Jul 20, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 27?$1.54Jun 26, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 31?$1.63May 31, 00:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 27?$84.31May 27, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 27?$81.87May 26, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26?$1.30May 25, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $90 May 18-24?$2.05May 24, 13:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 20?$93.80May 20, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 20?$86.22May 19, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 20?$4.86May 19, 17:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 19?$26.46May 13, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on May 9?$1.27May 9, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on April 15?$77.13May 7, 03:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 8?$0.00Apr 30, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 19?$2.72Apr 18, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 19?$21.62Apr 18, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $284 Week of April 13 2026?$2.06Apr 16, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on April 15?$74.66Apr 15, 03:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on April 12?$94.81Apr 14, 09:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $26.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 09:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 09:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.