Pale-Candle
0xcb15431c8d728f7f3a0cdb9f0e292e4576d5000c
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$122.97
Total PnL
$-54.31
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
20 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.30
$-0.10
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.10
$-1.10
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 60.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$13.50
$-16.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 12?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$13.30
$-1.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 12?
29 shares @ 54.2¢·now 45.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$13.04
$-2.68
- YES
Will BB Team make playoffs?
20 shares @ 75.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.50
$-4.50
- NO
Will League of Legends Win the 2026 Esports Game of the Year Award?
20 shares @ 56.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.10
$-1.10
- NO
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
20 shares @ 50.3¢·now 45.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.05
$-1.01
- YES
Will Iceman (Drake) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2027$6.40
$-3.00
- NO
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
20 shares @ 29.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.90
$-1.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 11?$13.60Aug 11, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 12?$4.47Aug 11, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 12?$7.93Aug 11, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alfredo Gaspar be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?$11.26Aug 11, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any former NBA player be drafted in the 2027 WNBA Draft?$0.44Aug 11, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLGrok 4.6 released by August 11, 2026?$13.80Aug 11, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$38.00Aug 11, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 12?$9.00Aug 11, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLGrok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?$7.40Aug 11, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLGrok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026?$5.00Aug 11, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?$2.28Aug 11, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alfredo Gaspar be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?$7.53Aug 11, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLCallum Turner announced as next James Bond?$7.00Aug 11, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?$12.57Aug 11, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$10.06Aug 11, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 12?$10.60Aug 11, 06:15 UTC
- TRADESELLGrok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?$5.00Aug 11, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$5.80Aug 11, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?$12.40Aug 11, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$31.70Aug 11, 05:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 03:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 14:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.