Tedious-Tumbler
0xcb239d37d4e32efe494c1701f3d8a50b72078189
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$3.9K
Total PnL
$412.25
Realised
$121.97
Win rate
89%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
370 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$362.79
$-2.40
- YES
Will Jill Tokuda be the HI-02 Democratic nominee?
211 shares @ 81.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$203.52
$31.80
- NO
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?
205 shares @ 90.5¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$196.76
$10.84
- NO
Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?
194 shares @ 35.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$184.97
$117.10
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
159 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 10, 2028$151.38
$3.64
- NO
Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
151 shares @ 90.1¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$146.42
$10.26
- NO
Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election?
125 shares @ 94.7¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$123.41
$5.29
- NO
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
120 shares @ 78.4¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$118.93
$24.95
- YES
Will Ron Nirenberg win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?
124 shares @ 73.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$109.34
$18.48
- YES
Will Tom Perriello be the VA-05 Democratic nominee?
106 shares @ 84.8¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$103.39
$13.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKim Kardashian announces passing the Bar Exam by 2027?$20.00Jul 28, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Lincoln Memorial" in August?$5.28Jul 28, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbey Zieska be the MN-05 Republican nominee?$7.01Jul 28, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Kiermaier win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$28.79Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Christensen be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$7.98Jul 28, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CPRF win the next Chechnya Parliament elections?$15.71Jul 28, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CPRF win the next Chechnya Parliament elections?$19.38Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?$19.38Jul 28, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lars Tietjen win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?$6.85Jul 28, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Miloš Jovanović win the next Serbia presidential election?$8.07Jul 28, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Savo Manojlović win the next Serbia presidential election?$8.35Jul 28, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bruno Adam Wolf win the next Hannover mayoral election?$20.70Jul 28, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Judit Polgár be the next President of Hungary?$21.67Jul 28, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tarik Samman be the MA-05 Democratic nominee?$19.79Jul 28, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Katherine Clark be the MA-05 Democratic nominee?$8.13Jul 28, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jonathan Paz be the MA-05 Democratic nominee?$19.79Jul 28, 01:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.48Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Wieland win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?$28.90Jul 27, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lars Tietjen win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?$15.84Jul 27, 01:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $16.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.