Worried-Surrounds
0xcb279627cd0cc6415a4f0fd69eefae793b070dd4
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$33.77
Total PnL
$-63.60
Realised
$0.06
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
18 shares @ 38.8¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.75
$0.75
- YES
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$7.69
$6.69
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
25 shares @ 28.1¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.97
$-0.04
- YES
Will Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$5.26
$3.26
- NO
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.76
$0.76
- NO
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.89
$0.89
- YES
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.45
$0.45
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
85 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said on the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?
76 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will "Shit" be said 10+ times on the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?
52 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.