Trim-Trowel
0xcb3143ee858e14d0b3fe40ffeaea78416e646b02
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.6K
Total PnL
$-746.5K
Realised
$-169.6K
Win rate
7%
135 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
60783 shares @ 3.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.2K
$-653.42
- YES
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
303649 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$759.12
$-436.34
- YES
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
303649 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$455.47
$-739.99
- YES
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
303649 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$455.47
$-739.99
- YES
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
303649 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$455.47
$-739.99
- YES
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
303649 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$455.47
$-739.99
- YES
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
303649 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$455.47
$-739.99
- YES
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
303649 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$455.47
$-739.99
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
70719 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$388.96
$-1.8K
- YES
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
106550 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$372.93
$-46.56
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.50Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.61Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.71Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.77Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.44Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.89Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 135 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
135 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $4.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 07:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 135 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.