Aching-Moonlight
0xcb419ce445eb597ae6c63a5541ffd9e509865a0d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-355.91
Realised
$-3.98
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?
1500 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13?
1257 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-36.89
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?
250 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-27.47
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
250 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-19.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
117 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-19.90
- YES
Will Trump shake hands with Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic Forum?
101 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?
100 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.43
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
62 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-9.95
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?$94.28Jul 7, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?$101.56Jul 7, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?$29.99Jun 29, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$9.60Mar 9, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$16.17Mar 9, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$29.57Mar 9, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$32.79Mar 9, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another country strike Iran by March 31?$167.51Mar 8, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another country strike Iran by March 31?$239.01Mar 8, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$76.75Mar 7, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$26.49Mar 7, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$0.21Mar 7, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.58Mar 7, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.58Mar 7, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$0.79Mar 7, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$4.29Mar 7, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$4.29Mar 7, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$4.29Mar 7, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$4.29Mar 7, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$2.37Mar 7, 20:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $28.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 17:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 16:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.